$15.1 Billion and Counting: The Energy Cost of a War the GCC Did Not Start

When the Strait closes, it is not Iran that loses first.

The Strait of Hormuz is 33 kilometres wide at its narrowest point. Through it flows approximately 20 percent of the world's oil supply and a significant portion of global LNG. For decades, Gulf states treated the possibility of its closure as a theoretical risk -- something to plan for, to build pipeline bypasses around, but not something they expected to see in their operational lifetimes.

On 28 February 2026, that calculation ended.

Within 72 hours of the first US-Israeli strikes on Iran, tanker traffic dropped to near zero, more than 150 ships anchored in open water outside the strait. Maersk, CMA CGM, and Hapag-Lloyd suspended transits entirely.

"Gulf producers have lost $15.1 billion in energy revenues in 15 days. They cannot monetise the higher oil prices the war has created, because they cannot ship the oil."

Brent crude has spiked above $100 per barrel, and Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, and Qatar are earning less than they were in February, because the infrastructure through which they sell their product is under threat or physically damaged.

Saudi Arabia's Ras Tanura has been struck. QatarEnergy declared force majeure on 4 March after drone strikes on Ras Laffan, halting the world's largest LNG operation entirely. Kuwait declared force majeure on 7 March. Saudi Arabia cut production by 20 percent on 13 March after the shutdown of two offshore fields, including Safaniya.

The East-West Pipeline is carrying what it can. Saudi Arabia is diverting to Yanbu on the Red Sea. The UAE is routing through Fujairah. But combined pipeline capacity has a deficit of approximately 12 million barrels per day against normal Hormuz throughput. And the Red Sea route remains vulnerable to Houthi action.

The IEA released 400 million barrels from emergency reserves. That represents four days of global consumption. It is a bridge, not a solution.

Iran spent an estimated $194 to $391 million on its retaliatory strikes. The GCC deployed interceptors at $3 to $5 million each. Iran spent hundreds of millions. The GCC has lost billions.

Donald and Bibi set that exchange rate.